Correlações entre os indicadores socioeconômicos, ambientais, demográficos e o homicídio no estado de Roraima no período de 2000 a 2020

Abstract

The objective of the study is to analyze the correlations between socioeconomic, environmental and demographic indicators and the homicide rate in the state of Roraima in the period from 2000 to 2020. It is an ecological study, of the analytical type, divided into four chapters that address the epidemiological profile of homicide mortality, the behavior of the female homicide rate, the temporal evolution of the rate and potential years of life lost due to homicide, and the correlation between socioeconomic, environmental and demographic indicators and homicide. Mortality data were collected from the Mortality Information System (SIM). Deaths due to homicides were considered as events referred to as aggression (codes X85 to Y09) of chapter XX of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems. The study population comprised all deaths due to aggression that occurred in Roraima. The dependent variable, homicide rate, was calculated using the total number of deaths from aggression divided by the resident population, multiplied by 100,000 inhabitants. The independent variables were categorized into three axes: Axis 1 – Socioeconomic (Gini Index, Gross Domestic Product – GDP per capita in reais, General Market Price Index (IGP-M) and the percentage of people aged 25 or over with complete high school); Axis 2 – Environmental (percentage of the population served by the water supply network, percentage of the population served by sanitary sewage and percentage of the population served by garbage collection); and Axis 3 – Demographic (demographic density). The existence of a correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variables was analyzed. In this exploratory step, all pairwise correlations between all variables were considered using Pearson's correlation coefficient, and correlations with p<0.05 were considered suggestive. Then, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed to summarize the independent variables on just two axes (PC1, indicating the level of socioeconomic conditions, and PC2, indicating inequalities), in order to take into account the various correlations between them. The data were analyzed in the R Studio program. The homicide rate went from 39.5/100,000 inhabitants in 2000 to 36.1 in 2020, a reduction of 8.6% in the period. The highest rate, 73.0/100,000, occurred in 2018. The highest correlations were found in the percentage of the population served by sewage (r=0.60), GDP per capita (R$) and percentage of people aged 25 or over. more with high school education (r=0.55), each. In the adjusted correlation analysis for the two models (PC1 and PC2) the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.42. Homicide is a health, public safety, historical, cultural and social problem in Roraima. There was an improvement in socioeconomic, environmental and demographic indicators in the period, however they did not show a strong correlation or statistically significant association with the homicide rate. However, drug trafficking, the introduction of criminal factions and the lack of control over firearms emerge as factors with important potential to explain the high homicide rate in the state.